The past few years have been an unprecedentedly interesting time for politics. We are living in
one of the most dynamic and changing political climates in our nation’s history. Partisan politics
are grid locking federal and state legislatures and wreaking havoc on millions of Americans. It
is understandably easy to be pessimistic and shortsighted in times like these. I am much more
interested in the long term trajectory of the political landscape and using logic to make educated
predictions. When one applies this methodology, there are some interesting and controversial
observations to be made.
In 2008 it looked like America had changed forever. Collective condemnation of the Bush
Administration brought voters to the polls in record numbers and Democrats were able to take the
White House and put a grip on Congress. Pundits at the time were asking questions and making
predictions about what was to become of the Republican Party. Many left the party’s platform, as
it stood, for dead. The belief was that a new party with fresh ideas more allied with the center of
America would have to emerge. In an interesting turn of events, the opposite happened.
The economic meltdown and subsequent bailout of banks and General Motors galvanized America’s
fiscally conservative, laissez-faire Capitalists. Grassroots movements collectivized to form the
Tea Party and exert a push back on a government perceived to have become too large and too
wasteful. As the recession poured down on average Americans, a lack of political luster created
the perfect storm for Republicans to retake many seats in the House and Senate, creating a check
on the Obama Administration. In addition, Republicans were wildly successful at the state level in
legislatures and governorships. Two short years earlier, conservative politics had been doomed.
Suddenly it was back with an even greater fervor for ideological principles.
Since the 2010 election, neo-conservatives have been able to wield their self-proclaimed “mandate”
to frighten Republicans in Congress in to refusing to compromise. While our nation has always had
political theater, behind closed doors deals get worked out between the aisles. Speaker Boehner, and
other leaders have been held hostage by the younger, more blood-thirsty Tea Party Conservatives.
This is a very interesting dynamic that most people just do not properly understand. Why, you might
ask, do they have to cow-tow to these people?
In 2012 the battle for Republicans will be more so against themselves than it will be to defeat
Democrats. The fear that Boehner, and many other Republicans have, is that by compromising
with the Obama Administration and moving toward the center, they put themselves in grave danger
of losing Primary races to uber conservative Tea Party candidates. I am not specifically asserting
that Boehner is in trouble, but inside Republican circles I can assure you that this is a major fear.
Remember that the goal of politicians is self-preservation and they are decidedly short term thinkers
because they have to be. Every vote, every speech, every action is a potential pitfall. They cannot
afford to be perceived as compromising with a wildly unpopular President in the ultra-conservative
districts where they reside; lest they open the door for primary defeat.
Polls indicate that the Republican solutions to America’s economic problems are shockingly different
than what the average person wants. Pundits are taking this information and trying to make sense
of it. What they do not understand, however, is that it does not matter to a Republican in the House
from Kansas, or Texas, or Mississippi what the majority of American people want. Their local districts
are uber-conservative and because of self-preservation, that is the only thing that matters. Politicians
are not concerned with the “good of the party” or long-term viability of their opinions or votes. If they
simply keep their nose to the grindstone, advocating and voting based on dogmatic principles, their
next election will be a piece of cake. Expect no true compromises from Republicans because the
base will engage in cannibalism if they do.
This piece brushed over the political landscape of the past few years. I have attempted to do what
few people are right now- use logic to explain seemingly illogical Republican policies and actions.
In my next article, I will take a look at the long-term implications of what is happening right now and
predict what the political landscape will look like in the coming years. We are on the cusp of great
changes in our nation’s history.




July 14, 2011 at 1:10 am
Self preservation is exactly right. It is the very reason why the special interest groups and the Koch brothers have such a stake on the Right and why we will never have alternative energy until it is in their best interest. As long as their palms are greased, the rest of us can go to hell.